DATA. the compass, macro version
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Observatory · public data · 2000-2026

The French economy in the 21st century:
changing worlds.

A quarter of a century of data to understand that we are not going through one more crisis, but the end of a model built on abundant, cheap energy. The cost of its consequences, from climate to materials, keeps rising.

Real state, no fuzzy inference. A segment only shows a score when a verified public dataset allows it; today all 9 segments are scored, some by proxy (energy, repairability), flagged in detail in the breakdown. Values come from Eurostat and data.gouv.fr (Oct. 2026); the score is the macro transposition of the company scale (v1).
STATE OF PLAY

We are not in crisis, we are changing worlds.

thesis in three beats
01

The conditions for growth are no longer met

When producer prices almost exactly track energy prices, and the energy consumed falls at the same time, the equation that has carried growth for a century, that of abundant and cheap energy, stops working.

02

Compressed margins, consumption that only tracks inflation

After peaking in early 2021 (around 36 %), the corporate profit share has fallen back under rising costs. Price competition, including low-cost alternatives, limits their ability to pass those costs on durably. And while trade holds up nominally, its growth merely tracks inflation, which can be read as a rising share of committed spending in household budgets.

ZOOM · RETAIL

Nominal vs volume vs inflation

The recent rise in nominal turnover is mostly a price effect: in volume (deflated), the progression is far weaker. The gap between the two curves is inflation. Reading: nominal = volume × price.

03

Real efforts, eroding confidence

A quarter of a century of effort (falling emissions, circularity, energy dependency) and yet consumer confidence is eroding, gnawed first by inflation and by fragile purchasing power. The dominant feeling is no longer that of progress to come.

Conclusion

It is neither a French exception, nor a lack of talent, nor a lack of effort. It is the sign that an economy designed for abundant, cheap energy has to reorganise when that energy becomes expensive and uncertain.

POUR AVANCER

Vers une économie qui ménage ses risques

9 segments · score barème · 4 zones

Noria is a model for steering the economy through risk control. Because before you can perform, you must be able to last. And in a moment of turmoil and uncertainty, confidence in the future is worth more than an ephemeral record run.

We applied our model to the French economy, within the limits of publicly available information, so that anyone can understand the logic behind our work.

2024

Scores calculated on public data (Eurostat · data.gouv.fr). Proxies (energy, repairability) are flagged in the breakdown.

direct proxy manquant

BREAKDOWN

By indicator

hover: the compass and the cards answer each other
The series retained, all verified (open data · machine-readable)
Industrial producer pricesEurostat · sts_inppd_mmonthlyCC BY 4.0
International trade in goodsEurostat · ComextmonthlyCC BY 4.0
Profit margin of non-financial corporationsEurostat · nasq_10_kiquarterlyCC BY 4.0
Consumer confidenceEurostat · ei_bsco_mmonthlyCC BY 4.0
Retail trade turnoverEurostat · sts_trtu_mmonthlyCC BY 4.0
GHG emissions by activityEurostat · env_ac_aigg_qquarterlyCC BY 4.0
Circular material use rateEurostat · cei_srm030annualCC BY 4.0